Does The Offshore Renewable Energy Support Scheme (oress1) Meet Ireland’s Commitment To A Just Transition?

Offshore wind is a crucial renewable energy to enable Ireland to meet her climate commitments as set out in CAP23 and the Climate Action and Low Carbon Development (Amendment) Act 2021. Appropriate government policies are critical for supporting the private investment needed to materialise this goal. However, there is a risk that these policies might not support the advancement of our parallel commitments to a Just Transition and the alleviate energy poverty and may even impede them. Employing a DCF model, this paper compares the financial costs and benefits of operating Codling Wind Park (CWP) with the financial benefits of the associated community benefit fund (CBF). It then considers the financial benefits of a hypothetical community share scheme (CSS). The paper finds that CWP will be profitably under a range of scenarios when either a CBF or a CSS is in place. Under the base case scenario, the developer is over €900m worse off where a CSS is in place with the majority of that benefit (and additional risk) being passed onto the community. It also finds that the profitability of the windfarm is particularly sensitive to the assumed capacity factor (a €2.4bn difference between 45% and 54.51%), the average of which is rapidly advancing with turbine technology advancements.